R.M.P Marotta Long Island

WeatherBug

By WeatherBug Meteorologists

Tropical Storm Ian continues to churn in the Central Caribbean and will eventually become a hurricane before taking aim at the eastern Gulf Coast.

As of 2 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ian was located near 14.7 N and 78.3 W, or 370 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island, and about 660 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. This would place it about 725 miles southeast of Key West, Fla. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were 50 mph as it continues on a westward track at 13 mph. It has a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb, or 29.59 inches of mercury.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Grand Cayman, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A warning means that hurricane conditions, including strong winds, flooding rainfall, and storm surge, are likely to begin within 36 hours. A watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Similiarly, a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the next 36 hours while a watch means that conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

Another Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.

Ian is slowly organizing as it moves across the western Caribbean this weekend. That organization is expected to accelerate on Sunday, with Ian reaching hurricane intensity as it veers northwestward toward the western tip of Cuba. Continued intensification is likely as Ian remains over the warm water of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with the potential for the storm to reach Category 3 or 4 intensity. A decent amount of weakening could occur before landfall since it may run into plenty of dry air and shear but will likely remain a threatening hurricane.

Current forecasts have Ian putting a target on the Florida Gulf Coast, likely somewhere between Pensacola, Fl. and Tampa Bay area, for landfall on Thursday. That said, the storm is quite large and its impacts will likely be felt from the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Keys. It is important when following the forecast to remember that a hurricane is more than a single point and that its impact can extend hundreds of miles away from the forecasted point for the center.

Western Cuba should expect to get drenched with 4 to 8 inches of rain, reaching near a foot in places. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands may see rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with a localized maximum of up to 8 inches. This amount of rain could cause severe flooding and mudslides. Dangerous and rough surf will also impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. Storm surge is a concern for the Cayman Islands, particularly on Monday, with water levels rising 2 to 4 feet above normal. Storm surge may get up to 9 to 14 feet in western Cuba Monday night and into early Tuesday.

It is too early to proclaim specifics in specific areas with regard to the storm’s impact in the U.S. In general, rainfall amounts on the order of 5 to 10 inches will be possible across a large swath of Florida with damaging winds as well on Wednesday and Thursday.

While the climatological peak of hurricane season just recently passed, it is very important to still be ready for a tropical storm or hurricane should one come your way. Collect non-perishable goods and water, blankets, radios and batteries, and extra cellphone chargers into a hurricane-supply kit. Scope out multiple evacuation routes in case your preferred route is traffic-jammed or blocked.