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At the end of this month, Congress might shut down the government. Here’s what that means — and what it could mean for you.
Why a shutdown is likely: Congress’s main job is to approve spending for the federal government. But lately, anytime there’s a divided government — like there is now — there’s a higher-than-normal possibility that lawmakers won’t pass a spending bill in time. And next year is an election year, which often means Democrats and Republicans take extra-partisan stances to play to their bases. Some conservatives seem to court the idea of a shutdown because it shows they’re cracking down on spending, and they don’t feel beholden to the traditional rules of governing.
The deadline for Congress to figure it all out is Oct. 1. That is the start of a new fiscal year. If they don’t pass spending bills before then, the government literally shuts down.
What it means for you: A shutdown means that federal workers don’t get paid while government is closed, federal parks are shuttered, and the longer it goes on, basic federal services will slow or stop, such as food inspections or even air traffic control. This is different from the debt ceiling, by the way. That’s a limit on federal borrowing that lawmakers fought over this spring, nearly causing a global economic collapse. The debt ceiling comes up whenever the United States runs out of money to pay its debtors. A shutdown debate comes up in the fall at the end of a fiscal year.
Why a shutdown might happen this time: Republicans control the House of Representatives, and Democrats control the Senate and White House. Far-right Republicans want to cut federal spending way more than Democrats are willing to. Democrats already agreed not to increase spending for next year as part of the way out of the debt ceiling standoff, and so they are loath to cut spending even more.ADVERTISEMENT
Here’s how a shutdown might go down: House Republicans, driven by their most conservative members, could pass a spending bill that drastically cuts federal spending. They want to cut spending for agencies such as the IRS and the Education Department, and for nutritional programs for the poor.
Democrats in the Senate and President Biden would reject that. And then, both sides are suddenly at an impasse that causes the government to shut down. There’s also only a few weeks to figure this all out.
“Honestly, it’s a pretty big mess,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said last week ― and he’s been involved in spending debates for a long time.
There’s no telling how long a shutdown might be if one happens again, but the longest one in history was 34 days under President Donald Trump.
There’s another way out of this: Lawmakers could suspend their disagreements and approve government spending for just a few months while they fight about a broader spending bill. You’ll hear this plan referred to as a short-term spending bill or a continuing resolution, or CR for short. This usually gives lawmakers extra time to argue about — and then settle on — spending limits without risking a shutdown. But even under this scenario, they have an effective deadline of Jan. 1.ADVERTISEMENT
Let’s talk about the 14th Amendment and how it might keep Trump off the ballot
Might is the key word here.
There’s a legal theory gaining traction among some Trump opponents and even a handful of conservative legal scholars: He’s constitutionally banned from running for president because of his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
The argument goes like this: Section 3 of the 14th Amendment bars anyone from holding office if they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.”
Some legal experts think this is a straightforward line of reasoning. Noah Bookbinder, president and CEO of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told our colleagues that Section 3 “sets up this qualification that is in many ways no different than the qualification that you have to be 35 years old to be president and to be a natural-born citizen.”
But legal theory is one thing. Actually implementing it to keep a former U.S. president with millions of supporters off the ballot is another. This has been tried, unsuccessfully, against two members of Congress who participated in Jan. 6 events, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and former congressman Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.).
There are two ways the theory could be tested:
- Someone files a lawsuit saying Trump is ineligible to run, and it gets appealed up the system — probably all the way to the Supreme Court.
- State election officials determine that he can’t be on the ballot in their state. Michigan’s secretary of state recently said she and other state officials are having conversations about it. Trump could also challenge those decisions in court.
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