R.M.P Marotta Long Island

000 FXUS61 KOKX 051323 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 923 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS… High pressure will remain across the area into early next week, while low pressure passes well to the south and east today and again Sunday into Monday. A cold front will pass on Wednesday, followed again by high pressure on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/… A sunny day is expected, with high temps close to or just above MOS guidance, with high temps 50-55 along the coast and in the metro areas, with upper 40s well inland. Sfc high pressure settles over the area tonight, so expect another night of strong radiational cooling, with frost/freeze conditions. Low temps should range from the mid/upper 30s in/around NYC, to the lower 30s in the suburbs, to the 20s in the outer suburbs of NYC, away from the immediate CT coast, and across most of eastern Long Island. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/… The high will weaken somewhat Sat night into Sunday as low pressure well to the south begins to approach. Increasing high clouds should limit radiational cooling, so do not expect temps quite as cold as those forecast for tonight, ranging from 40-45 in NYC, to the 30s most elsewhere, to 25-30 well inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/… Deep-layered ridging across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will help suppress a storm centered to east of the Carolinas on Monday. The longwave ridge axis then reaches us on Tuesday. Sunny both days with highs warmer than normal – in the 60s for most areas both days. A weak cold front with limited moisture passes through on Wednesday, so the dry weather continues, and highs still end up in the 60s for most locations. High pressure likely keeps us dry through the day on Thursday. Not as mild as on Wednesday, but still warmer than normal for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/… High pressure builds into the region today. VFR. N winds around 10 kt today, diminishing under 10 kt tonight. …NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty… No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY… .Sat-Tue…VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE… Winds and seas this morning may briefly approach SCA levels on the easternmost ocean waters, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas approaching 5 ft. Gusts should be infrequent so have not issued SCA. SCA conditions are likely on the ocean on Monday with gusts up to 25 kt, and elevated seas due to swell from a distant storm to the SE. Winds subside for Monday night, however seas remain up to 5 ft on the ocean through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY… No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING… A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for southern Nassau for the Friday morning high tide cycle. Statements for more isolated/brief flooding also remain in effect for southern Queens, lower NY Harbor, and western Long Island Sound. Episodes of isolated/brief minor tidal flooding are expected through the weekend in the more vulnerable communities across the western Sound, Lower NY Harbor, and the south shore back bays of western Long Island. In most cases, water levels may just approach or slightly exceed minor flood benchmarks. Astronomical tides will run as little as a few tenths below minor flood thresholds heading into the upcoming weekend due to a new moon. While the area will be absent of any strong wind forcing, easterly swells from a series of offshore lows Friday into Monday could allow for episodes of isolated minor coastal flooding to linger into early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES… CT…Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009>012. NY…Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071-078>081. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ073-074-177-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ179. NJ…Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE…None. && $$